Texas is Italy

I thought the spike would be visible by June 1st. Later is better, but not much better. July is going to be bad. If New York state is any indication, the virus will kill thousands of Texans in the next two months. I hope it stays in the four-digit range.

Our governor has been damn near useless in his rush to reopen. Other states have been more fortunate to have leadership that understands the stark severity of our situation. But even that’s not enough.

The time to prevent the virus from crossing state lines with was well before March. All we have now is social distancing, and it’s not enforced. This is the thing, and it’s not widely understood or said enough. The only reason that only 128,000 Americans are dead is because the majority of Americans voluntarily locked down their movement for three months.

Every newspaper I read is always talking about new cases going down in some states when they need to be precise. Cases are not going down anywhere. The rate of increase may be declining, but in all 50 states, new people are getting infected, every day.

And being a Texan is not going to save you. It will only make you arrogant enough to infect others. It’s the R value.

I wish I could say the political situation is improving, but it’s not much better. We are headed for a contested November election. I’m guess that Trump will attempt a deal – he’ll concede in return for a Biden pardon, his only way out of avoiding the raft of lawsuits waiting the loss of presidential immunity. Then he can preen himself as an alt-right martyr and hope for a slow Nixon-style transformation to elder statesman.

I hope Biden is smart enough to decline.

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