Iowa

Hmm. If you’re in Iowa and a Democrat, I hope you vote for Obama. Barring Obama, vote Edwards. Barring Edwards… well.

No matter what happens in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan, Clinton will not drop out until after Super Tuesday at the earliest. Edwards, however, might bow out earlier, and if he does, almost all of his voting block will go to the candidate he endorses. Given his attacks on Clinton so far, this would have to be Obama. Obama should almost certainly ask him to be VP (or vice-versa if Edwards surges) to seal that deal.

The polls in Iowa look bad for Clinton. Add Obama and Edward’s support together and you have nearly 60% of the voters. Both candiates are more liberal than she is. NH and SC are shaping up the same way. I hope that this turn to the left in the party is not a flash in the pan like Dean was.

As for the Republicans, they’re all extremely unattractive for different reasons. Romney is Clintonian, Huckabee doesn’t grok the church vs. state separation and appears more ignorant of world politics than Bush was, McCain has nearly completed his transformation into Bush, and Guiliani is… well.

Political predictions are useless things. The cynic in me says Clinton vs. Huckabee. I would hope for Obama vs. Guiliani. In any case, there will be plenty of illogical grist for the rhetorical mill in the next year.

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